The Ukrainian president warned Sunday that new conscripts could be used for an offensive against Ukraine or a strike on the Baltic states.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned on Sunday that Russia’s sweeping crackdown on social media and messaging platforms is not about silencing criticism of Vladimir Putin — but about clearing the way for a general mobilization that could target Ukraine or the Baltic states.
Social Media Shutdowns as Prelude to Conscription
Speaking during a national telethon broadcast on April 19, Zelenskyy argued that Russian authorities have been systematically dismantling independent digital communication channels to prevent mass protests when conscription notices begin reaching residents of major cities, including Moscow and St. Petersburg. He described Russia’s “Plan A” as “large-scale mobilisation, restrictions on social media, and launching an offensive”.[mezha +2]
The warning comes amid an accelerating digital crackdown inside Russia. Since February 2026, Russian authorities have blocked or severely restricted access to Telegram, YouTube [Alphabet Inc. +1.99%], Instagram [Meta Platforms, Inc. +1.73%], WhatsApp, Facebook, Signal, and Discord, according to Human Rights Watch. Telegram, Russia’s most widely used messaging app, was fully blocked from April 1, with the government pushing citizens toward MAX, a state-approved application preinstalled on devices sold in the country. Users have reported being locked out of government services unless the app is installed.[hrw +1]
Two Scenarios: Ukraine or the Baltics
Zelenskyy outlined two possible uses for a newly mobilized force. The first, which he labeled “Plan A,” would involve a renewed large-scale offensive against Ukrainian positions. The second envisions a more limited but geopolitically destabilizing strike on the Baltic states — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — which Zelenskyy described as “objectively not ready for a strong independent military confrontation with the Russian military machine”.[nashaniva]
The remarks built on warnings Zelenskyy issued at the Bucha Summit in late March, where he said Russian intelligence on mobilization was inconclusive but cautioned that a general mobilization would “not only increase pressure on our territory, but could also indicate potential moves against Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia”. Earlier this month, Russia publicly threatened the Baltic states for allegedly allowing their airspace to be used for Ukrainian strikes, a charge the European Commission responded to by stating that “an attack on one of our member states is an attack on the EU as a whole”.[newsukraine.rbc +1]
NATO’s Resolve Under Question
Zelenskyy framed the threat as a direct test of NATO’s Article 5 commitment to collective defense. He acknowledged that not all alliance members would welcome a direct confrontation with Russia but said the allies “simply will have no other choice” — because failing to respond would destroy the military bloc’s reason for existing. Separately, Ukrainian intelligence has reported that Russia is forming 10 to 15 divisions totaling around 100,000 troops for potential deployment to Belarus this summer, while building new roads and artillery positions along Ukraine’s northern border.[facebook +2]
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